Chart of the week | Will the wholesale bulls finally run out of steam?

In light of the continuing running of the bulls, this week’s Chart of the Week offers a wholesale market snapshot. It observes what has been driving recent power, gas and commodity prices. It then seeks to offer an outlook for this bullish momentum.

Though the chart shows day-ahead gas and power prices are currently towards the bottom of the yearly price range. Typically it would be expected that near-term prices would fall as demand eases throughout the summer. However, this isn’t the case this summer. At the time of writing, day-ahead power and gas prices are 42.0% and 55.5% higher than the same period last year respectively.

To keep reading, please log in to your account or sign up for free

Alternatively, please sign up to receive free market insight online and direct to your inbox

Related thinking

Commercial and market outlook

Elevated Wholesale Price in the NEM: QLD on the verge of triggering Administered Price Cap (APC) again

The Administered Price Cap (APC) was triggered for the first state on 12 June at 6:55 am as a result of QLD breaching the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT) of $1,359,100 for the rolling 7-day period. This caused the withdrawal of capacities by gas generators that could not recover fuel costs...

Commercial and market outlook

Gas generation on the move

Gas and electricity prices in Australia are unavoidably linked, particularly in the evening peaks where the gas generators have increased capability to set the price. Due to the recent spike in global gas prices, there has been a distinct change in gas generator bidding strategy resulting in an increase in...

Commercial and market outlook

Australian gas prices have recently coupled with European spot. Will linkage persist post-2023?

Last year it was difficult to imagine that spot gas prices in Australia would hit unprecedented levels of more than $40-50/GJ, with AEMO capping the DWGM price at $40/GJ. By comparison, the DWGM only averaged $5.10/GJ last year. As was mentioned by Energy Market Intelligence Manager Mohsin Ali in the...

Power and gas networks

Australian gas markets spike to unprecedented levels

Australia’s gas markets are in the middle of an unprecedented price spike. Current prices in the Victorian Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) have been tracking in the $20-40/GJ range since early May 2022, with prices hitting $50/GJ on 30 May. Prices in the other gas hubs of Sydney and Brisbane...

Home supply and services

Domestic Third Party Charges: 2022-23 outlook

The new energy price cap will come into effect from April, hitting a record high level which will see domestic consumers paying over 50% more per year in their energy bills. Although much of this increase is driven by rising wholesale prices, Third Party Charges (TPCs), reflecting non-commodity energy costs,...

Home supply and services

No easy fix: tariff prices remain high

In response to the unprecedented increases in global gas prices, Ofgem announced last week time limited measures “to help stabilise” the supply market. This includes a requirement for all domestic suppliers to offer existing customers the same tariffs available to new customers from 14 April, echoing changes made by the...

Home supply and services

Future calling today?

Focus on the immediate gas price crisis has been on wholesale prices for the short-term and the imminent price caps – but what if highly volatile markets are a feature in the future and not just the present? Cornwall Insight’s Benchmark Power Curve looks at investment and operational decisions over...

Commercial and market outlook

The Victorian story of gas demand segments

The Declared Wholesale Gas Market (DWGM) prices in Victoria have been on a rising trend since the start-up of LNG exports in 2015. Is this trend sustainable, given the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) forecasts an improved gas supply outlook with the new Port Kembla Gas Terminal (PKGT) expected to...