Low carbon generation

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Up and down: price volatility in Queensland

    In our previous ‘Chart of the week’, we observed increased intraday price volatility since late May, where we are seeing higher morning and evening prices. The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO’s) released Quarterly Energy Dynamics (QED) report for Q2 2021 attributed the price increase to reduction of thermal generation supply...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | AEMO’s 2025 goal means that SA becomes the proving grounds

    The latest news in the National Electricity Market (NEM) is AEMO’s goal to be capable of handling periods of 100% instantaneous renewables penetration by 2025. This is a significant challenge and fitting given the pace the NEM is moving to, supporting increasingly higher levels of instantaneous (and increasingly asynchronous) renewables...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Examining Victoria’s recent wind drought

    This ‘Chart of the week’ examines the recent spell of low wind generation in Victoria and associated elevated prices. Previously, ‘Chart of the week’ issue 78 highlights the risk of wind droughts within the National Electricity Market (NEM) due to the high correlation of wind fronts both within states and...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Australian Chart of the week | Two roller coaster rides for the price of one? Preliminary vs final MLFs

    In recent years, movements in marginal loss factors (MLFs) have received significant attention in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Many renewable projects in remote areas have experienced material MLF reductions as more supply connects nearby. For example, the MLF for Broken Hill Solar Farm saw a whopping 50 ppt drop...

  • Low carbon generation

    The outlook for private wire business models

    Interest in private wire arrangements has grown in recent years, with the benefits of network and policy cost avoidance becoming a key incentive for generators to look at this development approach. In this Chart of the Week, we look at the expected evolution of cost avoidance over the next five...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | VRE pays more as PFR helps reduce coal FCAS costs

    In our previous ‘Chart of the week’ in November 2020, we reviewed the increasing percentage of causer pays cost that solar generators bear due to their generation profiles and how this results in them paying significantly more of the causer pays cost as a ratio of the generation they provide. More than...

  • Low carbon generation

    Price trends for Renewables Gas Guarantees of Origins

    In May 2021 we published the findings from our latest quarterly Green Certificates Survey. The survey is designed to provide greater market transparency for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO), Continental Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and Renewable Gas Guarantees of Origin (RGGO) certificate markets. It provides aggregated views on certificate...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | 3 2 1… fight: VRE and price cannibalisation in NEM

    In the last decade, the rapid decline in deployment cost of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation capacity has given renewables an advantage over fossil fuels for new builds as highlighted in ‘Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020’ report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In the report, Australia has...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Peak raise regulation FCAS volumes drop by 72MWs

    It is helpful to understand Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) as FCAS price forecasts are needed to estimate generator and customer costs, as well as possible revenues for new and existing ancillary service providers. AEMO procures regulation FCAS to balance frequency during normal operation. From May 2019, AEMO has procured...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | If I should stay, I’ll only be in your way: coal and the transition

    Events in Queensland on 25 May 2021 tested the resilience of the Queensland demand/supply balance with 3GW of coal generation suddenly coming offline due to a loss of generation at the Callide power station. According to AEMO’s preliminary report – released on 1 June 2021 – on the event, the outage also...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | A view of captured prices by technology in New South Wales

    This Chart of the week examines the historical captured prices of selected technologies within NSW for the last 10 years. Figure 1 shows the historical rolling monthly average of captured prices of various technologies within New South Wales against the monthly generation of variable renewable resources including small scale rooftop....

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Is the market putting the brakes on distributed solar exports?

    In most states, electricity retailers determine and set their own rooftop solar feed-in tariffs (FITS). A major driver is the wholesale energy prices, which continue to decline midday. For more information, please refer to our previous Chart of the Week issue 76. As the solar weighted wholesale energy prices reduce or become...

  • Commercial and market outlook

    Chart of the week | The price is right? UK ETS market opens

    In issue 225 of the 'Chart of the week', we considered the potential scenarios for UK carbon prices as we transitioned to the new UK Emissions Trading System (ETS), noting the role of market tools, policy, and recent EU ETS pricing trends in determining UK prices. Following the launch of the first...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | “I feel the earth move under my feet”: from high to lows

    We have seen a dramatic shift in FCAS price fortunes over the past year or so, going from all-time highs of ~$229.3mn in Q1 of 2020 (due to the separation event) to only ~$40.1mn in Q1 2021. Since 2019 we have also seen regulation raise prices decline from robust prices...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Energy is neither created nor destroyed; it just transitions

    In April, the NSW government opened consultations on “specific urgent and mechanical policy details” on regulations needed to implement its Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap released late last year. The Roadmap aims to unlock 12GW of new renewable energy capacity from selected Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) with an additional 2GW in storage...

  • Low carbon generation

    Chart of the week | Higher or lower? Transitioning to the UK ETS

    Carbon prices, especially the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), have experienced considerable volatility over the last year, influenced first by COVID-19, which saw prices crash, and more recently by expectations of increased EU climate ambitions, driving prices to record highs. In this Chart of the Week, we consider the potential...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Resizing the bumper car (market price) floor?

    In the last two years the NEM 5-min prices fall to the floor more often than hit the cap as some regions struggle to deal with mid-day excess supply. This has raised questions about whether the price floor, which has stayed at -$1000/MWh for years, will be changed by the...

  • Low carbon generation

    Chart of the week | To 6 GW… and beyond! Offshore wind in the CfD scheme

    The role of Contracts for Difference (CfD) generators in the electricity market continues to expand and Allocation Round 4 (AR4) to be held later in 2021 will expand this role further. By the end of 2020, installed generating capacity supported by the CfD scheme already totalled 5.2GW, providing Great Britain...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | 5MS is coming but it still remains a known unknown

    The shift from 30-minute settlement to 5-minute settlement (5MS) is fast approaching – 162 days away but who’s counting. As a reminder, the current settlement price (SP) is determined by averaging six dispatch interval prices within a half-hour period. From October 2021, the dispatch price (DP) will be the settlement...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Supply creates its own demand: negative pricing in the NEM

    In the National Electricity Market (NEM), generators offer the prices at which they are willing to supply electricity to the system operator – the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) – who in turn matches these offers with demand on a least-cost merit order basis. The offer price of the last...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | NEM wind generation: Do birds of a feather flock together?

    With a growing expectation that coal plants will face early retirement, this week’s ‘Chart of the week’ examines the correlation between different wind patterns in the various identified Renewable Energy Zones in the NEM. As would be expected, there is a tendency of high correlation within the individual states, where...

  • Low carbon generation

    Chart of the week | The GB renewables pipeline: Snakes and Ladders

    Through our Renewables Pipeline Tracker (RPT) service, we have been reporting on and analysing the growing renewables pipeline in GB for the past 18 months. This week’s ‘Chart of the week’ looks at the latest numbers in the pipeline and the key trends impacting renewable assets. RPT research is gathered through a...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Hungry ducks – Can we flatten the belly of the ducks?

    Rooftop solar installations have continued record growth in 2020, as reported by Clean Energy Regulator (CER) in its latest December Quarterly Carbon Market Reports. In the report, 3GW of rooftop solar capacity was installed in 2020, which is a year-on-year increase of 40%. This brings the total rooftop solar capacity...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | When less could be more – on the states’ green targets

    This week’s ‘Chart of the week’ looks at the impact of the states’ targets on the overall NEM’s demand-supply profile. We start with the time-of-day average generation profile in 2020; add the extra renewable needed for the states’ 2030 targets; but also subtract coal and gas that are projected to...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Slow is smooth and smooth is fast for the NEM transition

    Reporting season is all but over for the energy majors in Australia and that has left us with a bevy of takeaways on the sentiment for the not-so-distant future. A key thread among reports has been the current low-price environment in the NEM. This is a topic that we have...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Winds of change: Victoria and its unique afternoon ‘belly bump’

    To say the transition is well and truly underway in the Australian NEM is not exactly news. In the last year alone, renewables have delivered record shares in generation mix across the NEM. Whilst solar is the technology often in the news given its impact on both operational demand, mid-day...

  • Energy storage and flexibility

    Australian Chart of the week | Show me the future: can storage bank on FCAS being bankable?

    Previously we have examined the importance in FCAS prices for the revenue stream for batteries. With a growing interest in batteries in the market, this ‘Chart of the week’ takes a deeper look into the impact of bidding behaviour on the Regulation Raise price since 2012. From January 2012 until...

  • Low carbon generation

    Chart of the week | REGO rebound: Prices to rise on COVID recovery

    We recently published the findings from the January 2021 edition of our Green Certificates Survey. The survey, which had 62 respondents from 59 distinct organisations, is designed to provide greater market transparency for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO), Continental Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and Renewable Gas Guarantees of Origin...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | Gassed out: are renewables running gas out of the market?

    Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released its ‘Quarterly Energy Dynamics’ (QED) report for Q4 2020. The report highlighted that operational demand has fallen to its lowest quarterly level since 2001; largely driven by mild weather and strong uptake of rooftop solar. Coupled with record high wind and...

  • Low carbon generation

    Australian Chart of the week | December 2020: when Santa brought low temperatures & prices

    With just about half of summer left to go, many keen NEM observers would agree that it has been a pretty mild journey so far; at least as far as the NEM is concerned. But how mild are we talking here? In this 'Chart of the week', via a time-of-day...